Good morning. Many years ago, as a graduate student at the London School of Economics, I was taught that economic expansions don't die of old age. They die from policy mistakes. And the executioner is usually the Federal Reserve. My professor at the time was Janet Yellen, who now holds the ax. She will testify today and tomorrow about her plans to keep the current expansion alive. She is in a tough position, fighting against two ghosts--inflation and recession--even though there is no economic evidence that either is imminent. Yet with the economic expansion now entering its ninth year, history suggests that, despite the economists’ adage, odds of recession may be growing. My former colleague Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal --who, for my money, is the best journalist writing about economics today-- penned an interesting piece last week saying all the "preconditions for recession" are now in place--a labor market at full strength, frothy asset prices, tightening cen...
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